A new Class 8 sleeper that cost $170,000 USD eighteen months ago costs around $190,000 to $200,000 today, and is projected to cost $230,000 by the time it rolls off a 2027 production line. The difference is not inflation in the ordinary sense. It is tariffs and emissions costs stacking on top of a base price that was already rising.

For an owner-operator or a small fleet, this changes the math on every equipment decision you are about to make. Here is what the tariff stack actually looks like in May 2026, and what it means for whether your next truck should be new, used, or something else entirely.

The current tariff picture

Section 232 of the U.S. Trade Act remains the central instrument. The duties on steel, aluminum, and heavy-duty trucks were introduced through 2025 and have not been lifted. The American Trucking Associations has projected that, with all tariff and tax effects combined, the total cost of a new Class 8 truck could rise by up to $35,000 per vehicle, with end-user prices reaching $238,000 USD for a top-spec unit.

On April 8, 2026 — five weeks ago — the Government of Canada finalized the U.S. Surtax Remission Order (Motor Vehicles 2026). This extended relief from Canada’s 25 percent counter-tariffs on certain U.S.-manufactured vehicles for another year, through April 8, 2027. That is genuinely helpful for the Canadian buyer of a U.S.-built truck. It means the worst of the cross-border premium has been temporarily deferred. But it is a temporary measure tied to a trade negotiation that is still active.

ACT Research has estimated the tariff effect alone at roughly $10,000 per new Class 8 truck in 2026. When you stack EPA 2027 engineering costs on top — another $8,000 to $15,000 — you arrive at the projected price level for trucks coming out next year.

What this does to the used market

The single biggest market force in used trucks right now is the price differential to new. When new trucks were $170,000 and clean late-model used trucks were $80,000, the calculation favoured used for cost-sensitive operators but new was reachable for serious fleets. At today’s pricing, the spread between a new truck and a clean 2022-2024 used truck has widened by tens of thousands of dollars. Used demand has accelerated. Inventory is contracting. Prices are firming.

This is why the J.D. Power February 2026 data showed used prices ticking up across the board, and why Sandhills Global has been reporting consecutive months of inventory contraction. Tariffs on new trucks push buyers into the used market. The used market tightens. Prices rise on used. Eventually, used pricing rises far enough that buyers reconsider new — but that point is still further out than spring 2026.

Three scenarios, three decisions

Scenario one: you need a truck right now.

If you have committed freight and you need iron on the road this quarter, the math points to a clean used truck — a 2022 or 2023 model year sleeper with reasonable mileage, full service records, and no body damage. You avoid the worst of the tariff premium. You avoid the EPA 2027 uncertainty. You pay a fair number in a firming market, but well below new.

Scenario two: you can wait six to nine months.

If your existing truck is reliable and you can wait through Q3 or Q4 2026, the math is more complex. You can lock in a 2026 build slot on a new truck at current pricing, before 2027 model year pricing fully kicks in. The Surtax Remission Order is in effect through April 2027, so cross-border costs on certain vehicles are temporarily lower. Build slots on 2026 production are getting allocated quickly, but they are still available.

Scenario three: you can wait eighteen to twenty-four months.

This is the highest-risk scenario. By spring 2027, you are buying into the first year of EPA 2027 trucks. New pricing is at its peak. Aftertreatment reliability is unproven. The Surtax Remission Order may have been renewed or may not have been. The used market is still tight. Waiting that long only makes sense if your current equipment is reliably earning and the capital cost of an early replacement does not fit your business.

What we are doing here

At Mainland, we are not in the business of selling you a truck you don’t need at a moment that doesn’t fit. We are in the business of being here next year, and the year after, and the year after that, so the same customers keep coming back when the next decision comes around.

Right now, we have 2025 and 2026 new inventory and clean late-model used inventory on the lot. Blue Capital Equipment Finance is approving credit applications in the same afternoon at competitive OAC rates. The number you pay today is going to look like a good number twelve months from now.

The bigger picture

Trade policy will change. Tariffs will rise, fall, and be renegotiated. Emissions standards will tighten further after 2027. The carriers who survive every cycle are the ones who match their equipment decisions to their actual freight, their actual cash flow, and their actual time horizon — not to the news cycle.

Read the math. Talk to your accountant. Talk to your finance partner. Then come walk a lot and see what fits.

From our family to yours — buy on the math, not on the mood.

📍 9616 188 Street, Surrey, BC V4N 3M2 📞 1-866-888-6887 🌐 www.mainlandtts.com

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